IL-14
Bill Foster’s victory in IL-14 (to replace the retiring Dennis Hastert) was the first of the three special elections in red territory over the last year that really started to show the Republican edifice crumbling. With an R+5 rating, and Jim Oberweis able to write whatever checks he needs out of his ice cream empire’s checkbook, though, we’ve been keeping a wary eye on the rematch.
We still haven’t seen any polling of this race, but looking at fundraising numbers, the general lack of chatter coming out of this race, and a certain Illinois Senator at the top of the ticket, this one is feeling like an almost done deal. Most significantly, Oberweis only raised $88,000 in the last quarter and has only half the cash on hand of Foster, which suggests that Oberweis has already hung it up for the season.
MN-06
This race was the site of a hot contest in 2006 when it was an open seat (where Michelle Bachmann beat Patty Wetterling), but Bachmann’s matchup with Elwyn Tinklenberg has been kind of a backwater this year. Well, that was yesterday. Intemperate remarks from Bachmann in an interview with Chris Matthews, suggesting that anyone who disagrees with her is anti-American, generated a massive response from the netroots, leaving Tinklenberg almost $500,000 richer than he was two days ago.
Also, in the last couple days, the DCCC decided to go on the air in support of Tinklenberg (which had probably already been decided prior to Bachmann turning on her overdrive on MSNBC, thanks to a DCCC internal showing a four-point Bachmann lead… but the outpouring of netroots money certainly encouraged them too, as the DCCC tends to follow the scent of money). Bachmann just released her own internal showing giving her an 11-point lead but showing her under 50, suggesting Tinklenberg is still running uphill. But he’s a lot closer to the summit than he was a few days ago.
OR-05
When Darlene Hooley announced her retirement earlier this year, holding onto this seat actually seemed one of the Dems’ biggest worries. It was a D+1 seat with a small GOP registration advantage, and Hooley never won by more than around 10 points.
This race shows that a little success at candidate recruitment goes a long way. State senator Kurt Schrader emerged with little trouble from the Democratic primary, while the GOP primary turned into a nightmarish slugfest, as empty-suit businessman (and 2006 candidate) Mike Erickson barely beat out 2002 gubernatorial nominee Kevin Mannix… but not before Mannix lowered the boom, bringing up allegations that the ostensibly pro-life Erickson had recently knocked up a girlfriend and paid for her abortion.
Subsequent disasters for Erickson included an expose of his charitable trip to Cuba which involved suspiciously little charity. Between a collapse of Erickson’s fundraising (only $31K last quarter and $42K CoH), a recent SurveyUSA poll giving Schrader a 51-38 edge, and the Oregonian’s endorsement of Schrader (and derisive dismissal of Erickson), the big question now seems to be whether Schrader can beat Hooley’s underwhelming margins on his way to victory.
NC-10
This is a deep red district (R+15) in rural western North Carolina, home of execrable chickenhawk Patrick McHenry; not the likeliest place to see a Democratic victory. However, attorney and double-amputee veteran Daniel Johnson has given McHenry the strongest challenge he’s seen.
This is one we’ve had our eye on since a PPP poll from June showed McHenry under 50, with only a 49-38 lead. The DCCC seemed to have liked what it saw, adding Johnson to its Red to Blue list, which in turn gave Johnson a big fundraising boost, as he raised $239K this quarter, beating McHenry’s $194K. The Republican lean of this district is a big, big obstacle, but Johnson’s momentum means an upset can’t be ruled out.